Into the Bit

Yesterday’s Hollywood card was a lot like many of the others this season. I didn’t get shut out, but it wasn’t pretty. I’m going to look at the Friday Night card quickly, and will probably do the Preakness Day Card at Pimlico Saturday. I’ll do this against my own advice which is to stick to one track, but you have to live a little sometimes.

Race 1 at Hollywood Park is a $100,000 Maiden Claimer for 3 year olds and upwards at 1 1/16th miles over the Cushion Track. Claiming races on this high of a scale is really a Maiden Special Weights race. I’m going with Buzzin Mon in this one. M.C. Baze and Doug O’Neill are both having good meets and I can see it continuing in this race. I’m going to skip Matty’s G Force in here as my protest against $100,000 claiming races not being Maiden Special Weights. Trainer Mike Mitchell has great numbers for Maiden Special Weights horses dropping to Maiden Claiming (Which this isn’t) and for Maiden Claiming races (Which this isn’t) overall. It’s hard to say what I’m going to care about on any given day. Today, it’s $100,000 Maiden Claiming Races. Left Unsaid in his first start on a synthetic surface for Bobby Frankel, and GeauxfortheDeaux.

The second race is $40,000 Claiming Race for 4 year olds and upwards at one mile over the Turf Course. Quest Venture runs very well fresh and hasn’t been out since February 16th. Of his four wins, two have come off the layoff. Quasimodo has been facing lesser and takes a big jump up in class today and could get the job done. Brave Sun’s trainer Jose DeLima has a very interesting percentage in his favor. He just claimed Brave Sun last out and is stretching him out today. Going sprint to route he wins 40% with a $8.76 ROI. That’s good enough to take a little shot at 10/1 on the morning line.

The third is for bottome level $8,000 Claiming fillies and mares 4 years old and up sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the Cushion Track. I like Excessive Tale pretty well tonight. Frank Monteleone gets them ready pretty good winning 29% off the 180+ day layoff with a very respectable $6.94 ROI. He claimed this one last time out, and is 26% first off the claim. With Espinoza up this one looks good to me. Topper’s Smiling also has a great shot in here as she should be stalking what may be a quick pace. La Mandonna will be on my trifecta tickets as well.

The fourth race is a Starter Allowance for fillies and mares three years old and up which have broken their maidens for $40,000 or less and are non-winners of two races at 7 furlongs over the Cushion Track. I’ll go with Stroppy who fits the conditions perfectly winning her only out in a $40,000 maiden Claimer. That fits her into this condition, and leaves a lot of room for upside particularly after being left a little in the gate, and closing as strongly as she did in her only out. Malabar Star and Schill both have better Beyer figures than Stroppy, but their previous races show their limitations. I’ll use them underneath.

That’s all I have time for today, but as always;

Good Luck;

Ron

I had a better day at Hollywood Park yesterday thanks to a couple of decent price winners in Jungle Wave ($16.80) and Lutyens ($10.60). Call Aly also won but only paid ($3.40). We also should have had the exacta in the 4th with Peace Accord and Run Forest Run. Let’s see if we can string two in a row together.
(more…)

Time to start a new week at Hollywood. As Forrest Gump would say, “That’s all I have to say about that”.

Wednesday’s Hollywood Card starts off with a $40,000 Claimer for 4 year olds and up at 1 1/16th miles over the Cushion Track. I’m going to toss the last race that Nice Bet ran last time out because it was his first time in North America. He was in pretty deep that day with Brother Derek and Mast Track. He’s in quite a bit softer today at $40,000 and should improve a great Deal today with a trip around the track. He’s got a nice work that I really liked, and gets the blinkers off today. Sensational Score should be right there if the pace gets hot. There are no real speed horses in this race, but a lot of stalkers. I think Seven Secrets may try for the lead, and if it is contested Sensational Score may be able to come from off the pace to be around at the wire. I the pace is uncontested Seven Secrets may be able to steal this one, or at least get a piece of it. Seven Secrets has been beaten by Gallardo twice while trying to go wire to wire, but Sensational Score beat Gallardo last out, and I don’t like Gallardo after just being claimed.
(more…)